This paper, written by CID Faculty Affiliate Edward Glaeser and co-authors Juan Pablo Chauvin, Yueran Ma, and Kristina Tobio, compares the spatial and economic dynamics of urbanization across four major countries (Brazil, China, India, and the United States) testing whether canonical models from urban economics, such as Zipf’s Law, Gibrat’s Law, and spatial equilibrium, apply similarly across different levels of development. Using harmonized definitions of urban areas and comparable microdata, the authors examine whether patterns in city size distribution, migration flows, agglomeration effects, and human capital spillovers hold across high- and low-income countries.Â
This study contributes to urban economic theory by showing that foundational models developed in advanced economies do not universally apply to urbanization in low- and middle-income countries. The empirical divergence seen in India and China underscores how legal barriers to mobility, labor market frictions, and dysfunctional property systems alter urban dynamics in developing contexts. This calls for a more flexible and locally grounded approach to modeling urban growth and designing urban policy.Â
At the same time, the research highlights that the drivers of urban productivity—such as agglomeration effects and returns to education—can be even stronger in developing cities. This indicates that better-managed urbanization could offer large economic dividends in the Global South, especially if accompanied by supportive policies like infrastructure investment, improved public services, and more efficient land and housing markets. Urban dysfunctions in poorer countries should not obscure the long-term opportunity to harness cities for inclusive economic development.Â
More broadly, the paper reframes urbanization in the Global South as a distinct development pathway, shaped by different institutional constraints and demographic trends. As most global urban growth will occur in lower-income nations, understanding these patterns is essential for designing effective and equitable development strategies. This work strengthens the empirical foundation for a new wave of research and policy tailored to the realities of fast-growing cities across the world.Â