The South China Sea remains a major area of geopolitical tension, as China faces mounting pressure from the US and its Indo-Pacific allies. With the return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House in January next year, the situation could become even more complicated, given his previously tough stance toward China. A recent key development was the first-ever five-way meeting of defence ministers in Laos, which included representatives from the US, Japan, the Philippines, South Korea and Australia. Held alongside the Asean Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADDM-Plus), this meeting marked an important step in strengthening alliances aimed at countering China’s growing control over the region.
Pentagon and Indo-Pacific commitment
During the Laos meeting, the Pentagon highlighted the strong commitment of the five nations to maintain a free, open, secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific where international law and sovereignty are respected. As the Biden administration continues to bolster security and defence cooperation across the region, it is evident that the US and its allies are focussed on limiting China’s expanding influence, particularly in contested areas like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
Uncertainty surrounding a Trump presidency
While President Biden’s administration has made progress in strengthening alliances in the region, the return of President-elect Trump in January brings uncertainty about the US’s future commitment to its Indo-Pacific allies. Trump’s “America First” policy might lead to less US involvement in global matters, raising concerns about ongoing support for international partnerships. His approach to China in a second term could become more aggressive, especially on trade, security and technology. This uncertainty also affects the future of Aukus, the security pact between the US, UK and Australia, as it may change depending on Trump’s foreign policy.
Aukus and its expanding alliances
Aukus, created in 2021 to counter China’s growing military strength, has become a key part of military cooperation in the Indo-Pacific. According to a South China Morning Post report, Aukus is now looking to share defence technologies with more countries, such as Japan, South Korea, New Zealand and Canada. The first part of Aukus, which focusses on giving Australia nuclear-powered submarines, is important for improving combat readiness and stealth, especially with China’s powerful navy. The second part of Aukus aims to increase cooperation in areas like artificial intelligence, hypersonic weapons and electronic warfare. These technologies are seen as crucial for staying ahead of China in key areas like the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait.
The Philippines and South China Sea disputes
The Philippines, a long-time ally of the US, has become an important part of the South China Sea dispute. Tensions between Manila and Beijing have increased due to several clashes in the disputed waters. One key issue is the Philippines’ military presence on Second Thomas Shoal, an area that China claims as its own. In response, the US has increased its support for the Philippines, including plans to send advanced missile systems to both Japan and the Philippines. This move is part of the US’s bigger plan to maintain peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, where China’s military activities are a major challenge.
According to Reuters, as tensions in the South China Sea grow, the US has also stepped up its help for the Philippines’ maritime operations. The US has sent Task Force Ayungin to assist the Philippines in the disputed waters. This task force will help improve coordination between US and Philippine forces and support activities like intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance. This is part of the US’s larger effort to counter China’s increasing influence in the region, especially in the South China Sea.
China’s aggressive actions, like ramming Philippine ships and using water cannons to stop resupply missions to troops on Second Thomas Shoal, have raised concerns about security in the region. The US has said it is committed to keeping the peace and ensuring freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, which is a key route for global trade.
Vietnam and Malaysia team up
Beyond US-led efforts, Southeast Asia is seeing big changes in its diplomatic ties. Vietnam and Malaysia have recently upgraded their relationship to a comprehensive strategic partnership. This change comes as tensions with China grow over maritime issues in the South China Sea. The agreement, announced during a visit by Vietnam’s Communist Party chief To Lam to Malaysia, shows both countries’ commitment to peace, security and freedom of navigation in the region. A Reuters report said the stronger partnership between Hanoi and Kuala Lumpur is part of a wider shift in Southeast Asia, where many countries are becoming more worried about China’s territorial ambitions.
The joint statement from both countries stresses the need for self-restraint in the South China Sea and supports resolving disputes peacefully. Both nations have also agreed to work towards a South China Sea Code of Conduct (CC) that follows international law, especially the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. While the COC has been under discussion since the 1990s, progress has been slow because of disagreements within Asean and competing territorial claims among its members.
A more unified Asean response to China
The stronger ties between Vietnam and Malaysia might be the start of a more united Asean response to China’s actions in the South China Sea. According to the South China Morning Post, Indonesia and Singapore might soon follow Malaysia’s example and strengthen their ties with Vietnam. This change could lead to a more coordinated effort in addressing the maritime dispute with China though it’s unlikely to lead to immediate changes on the ground.
A rising tide of tensions and alliances
As tensions in the South China Sea escalate, the upcoming return of President-elect Trump in January adds uncertainty to the region’s future. Trump’s “America First” approach, which advocates for a tougher stance on China, could intensify the already strained relationship between the US and China, particularly regarding maritime issues. The growing military presence of the Pentagon in the Indo-Pacific including initiatives like Task Force Ayungin and strengthened partnerships with countries such as Japan, Philippines and Australia, signals a heightened focus on security concerns in the region.