In the shadow of decades of war, economic collapse, and environmental devastation, Afghanistan now faces a worsening crisis as neighbouring countries ramp up the forced return of Afghan refugees. For those caught between hostile host nations and a Taliban-led homeland struggling to meet basic needs, the prospects are grim.
Afghans constitute the third-largest displaced population globally, trailing only Syrian and Ukrainian refugees. Following the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, millions fled the country, with 1.25 million seeking refuge in neighbouring Pakistan and Iran.
Many refugees who fled Afghanistan— 71 per cent of whom are women and children, according to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR)— now face expulsion back to a homeland that remains unprepared for their arrival.
Hostile expulsions
Iran has announced plans to expel as many as two million Afghans by March 2025, adding to the 800,000 who have already been pushed out of Pakistan since October 2023.
Refugees sent back often find themselves in urban centers where job opportunities are scarce, housing is inadequate, and survival depends on tenuous family or community connections. For many, such ties were severed during years of exile, leaving them adrift.
The plight of women deportees is particularly dire. Afghanistan, under Taliban rule, remains the only country in the world where girls and women are barred from secondary and higher education.
Restrictions on employment, movement, assembly, and speech further erode their chances of rebuilding their lives. The returnees join millions already grappling with food insecurity, malnutrition, and widespread unemployment.
During a recent visit to Afghanistan, Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) Secretary General Jan Egeland described meeting returnees at the Iranian border.
“The many vulnerable Afghans already returning from Iran, whom I met at the border this week, feel they live in an enduring limbo. They left Afghanistan in search of a better and safer life and are now returning to an uncertain future in Afghanistan, where they face the same unemployment, hunger and human rights violations that made them leave their homeland in the first place.”
The rights of the people being sent back to Taliban– sometimes at a rate of 2,000 people per day– are in a precarious position.
Many arrive with no place to live, no jobs to sustain them, and no hope for education or healthcare. Women and children— already disproportionately affected by restrictive Taliban policies— bear the brunt of these challenges, facing heightened risks of exploitation and abuse.
From January onwards, the Taliban administration did begin allotting land to the returnees a housing scheme, as well as for agriculture, Anadolu Agency had reported. However, it is unlikely that these efforts will keep up with the influx of people.
Mounting challenges in host nations
The plight of Afghan refugees isn’t confined to the borders of their home country. In Pakistan, an estimated 15,000 Afghans await approval for resettlement in the United States through a government program designed to assist those who worked with US forces, aid agencies, and media organizations.
However, resettlement efforts have been significantly hampered by policies introduced by the Trump administration. Since taking office on January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump’s administration has single-handedly created a roadblock for Afghan refugees, suspending the US Refugee Admissions Program for at least three months.
This suspension has left thousands of vulnerable Afghans in limbo, including more than 1,600 who had already been cleared to travel to the US.
In Western nations, the challenges are equally severe. Germany’s first deportation flight of Afghans since the Taliban’s return occurred in August 2024 following a knife attack that heightened public pressure to tighten asylum policies.
The rise of right-wing political factions has amplified the anxiety of Afghan refugees and asylum seekers, many of whom fear an uncertain future as deportation efforts gain momentum.
A homeland in crisis
Afghanistan remains ill-equipped to absorb the returning waves of refugees.
The economic situation is dire, with food insecurity and malnutrition affecting millions.
International aid, which has served as a critical lifeline, has dwindled in the wake of the Taliban’s takeover. Moreover, at the moment, harsh winter conditions—with temperatures plummeting to minus ten degrees Celsius at night—have exacerbated the struggles of displaced families.
The country’s infrastructure is crumbling, and its institutions are under severe strain. Industries that could have absorbed returning workers remain stunted, while the Taliban’s restrictive policies have driven skilled professionals— particularly women— out of the workforce. Those who return to Afghanistan find not a refuge but a continuation of the hardships they fled.
The humanitarian aid void
The escalating crisis shows the lack of durable solutions for Afghan refugees. International aid organisations like the NRC continue to provide critical support, but their efforts are stretched thin.
“Poor and displaced Afghan families are paying a heavy price for a lack of real, durable solutions to assist displaced people and refugees caught in an escalating humanitarian crisis,” Egeland said.
The international community’s diminishing focus on Afghanistan has left millions vulnerable.
Humanitarian funding shortfalls, coupled with the Taliban’s isolation on the world stage, limit the resources available to address the crisis. With host countries closing their doors and a home country incapable of providing basic support, Afghan refugees face an uncertain future filled with impossible choices.
With inputs from agencies