For 54 years, the Assad family ruled Syria. Now the unthinkable has happened. Bashar al-Assad, the president who ruled the country with an iron fist until a few days ago, has been ousted and fled to Russia.
The rebels led by Islamist militant group
Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) started a surprise offensive against the Assad regime from their base in Idlib in northwestern Syria. They made quick advances and captured Aleppo, the country’s second-largest city. Then they moved toward the capital Damascus, as the military was defeated.
On Sunday (December 8), Russia announced that
Assad had stepped down and left the country. This came hours after rebels gained Damascus and Syrians gathered on the streets to celebrate the end of his rule.
Catch all the latest updates on the Syria war here
The former president has
fled to Russia, where he is granted asylum. “Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow. Russia, for humanitarian reasons, has granted them asylum,” a Kremlin source said, according to TASS. “Assad and his family have arrived in Moscow. Russia, for humanitarian reasons, has granted them asylum,” a Kremlin source was quoted as saying by TASS.
So what happens next in Syria? What does the fall of Assad mean for the country? We explain.
What led to the fall of Bashar al-Assad?
Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez, who ruled the country for 29 years. He took over a tightly controlled regime, where there was no place for any opposition. The young Assad, at first, gave hope of change. But he was no different from his father.
A turning point came in 2011. Assad brutally crushed a pro-democracy uprising in Syria, which plunged the country into 13 years of civil war. Its brutal conflict left half a million dead and six million others became refugees.
Assad had the backing of Russia and Iran. With the help of Russia’s air power and Iran’s proxies like Hezbollah, he crushed the rebels. While they took control of the northeast and northwest regions of Syria, the dictator controlled a large part of the country.
However, a lot has changed in recent years. Russia is engaged in a war with Ukraine and Iran too is facing regional challenges as Hezbollah and Hamas are weakened amid the West Asia conflict. Years of civil war and corruption left the Syrian regime on shaky grounds as well.
With Assad’s two allies preoccupied and unable to offer much-needed support, the rebels saw an advantage. HTS and its allies launched the surprise offensive on November 27; they started capturing key cities –
Aleppo, Hama, Homs and finally Damascus.
Who is in control of Syria after Assad’s fall?
HTS and its allies started the offensive to “deter aggression”, as it accused the government of increasing attacks on civilians.
After Assad stepped down and left Syria, the rebels entered Damascus. HTS leader Abu
Mohammed al-Jawlani, who arrived in the capital later, told Syrians, “The future is ours.”
Jawlani has announced the formation of a transitional authority with Syrian Prime Minister Mohammed al-Jalali being appointed as the caretaker of state institutions.
Jawlani’s statement, signed in his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, banned military forces in Damascus from approaching public bodies and prohibited the firing of guns in the air.
Jalali, who was appointed prime minister by Assad in September, said that his government was ready to hand over power to the leadership chosen by the people. “I am not leaving and I don’t intend to leave. I expect in a peaceful manner to guarantee the continuity of the public authorities and the institutions and the state apparatus and to guarantee the safety and security for all citizens,” he said in a video statement.
“And we are extending our hands even to the opposition, who extended their hands and gave assurances they will not cause any harm to any citizens who belong to this Syria of ours,” he added.
Jalani told Al Arabiya in an interview that he was in touch with the HTS leader to discuss managing the transitional period and said that Syria should hold free elections.
While Syrians are joyous over the fall of Assad, the fact remains that the HTS is a former affiliate of Al Qaeda; it is still designated a terrorist organisation by the United Nations and the United States.
What happens next in Syria?
The unexpected and sudden fall of Assad has raised questions about Syria’s government and security. The rebel groups have achieved their goal of toppling the government but they too face challenges of their own.
It remains to be seen how quickly rebel groups can secure control of Damascus and prevent a power vacuum. Can they form a united coalition to bring stability to Syria?
“It is hard to bring process and a smooth transition to a fast-moving situation,” Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa programme at Chatham House, a research institute in London told The New York Times. “The speed and uncertainty poses many risks for what comes next pertaining to accountability and good governance to protect the interests of the Syrian people.”
Questions also remain over the fate of Assad’s chemical weapons. A big concern for the international community is these stockpiles falling into the hands of armed groups.
“Any possible chemical weapons inventory or related materials must be secured,” Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told the media on Sunday. Turkey is believed to have backed the HTS offensive even though it has denied any involvement.
Meanwhile, Israel has struck a chemical weapons factory in Syria to stop it from falling into the hands of armed rebels, according to a report in The Jerusalem Post.
Charles Lister, the director of the Syria programme at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, told Foreign Policy that there is also growing concern about the Islamic State in Syria and whether it would try to take advantage of the current situation.
That’s not all. The future of Syria’s religious minorities, including the Kurdish forces who have allied with the US military to fight the Islamic State, hangs in the balance. In months to come, Jalani’s intentions will be revealed. He has been tolerant towards minorities in the Idlib Province he controlled even as he ran a conservative government with Sunni Islamist ideology.
The HTS has said that it has gone out of its way to assure Christians and other religious and ethnic minorities that they will be safe under its rule. “There were some violations against them [minorities] by certain individuals during periods of chaos, but we addressed these issues,” Jawlani told CNN recently when asked about concerns for their safety. “No one has the right to erase another group. These sects have coexisted in this region for hundreds of years, and no one has the right to eliminate them,” he added.
Only time will tell if the former Al Qaeda fighter can bring together an ethically and religiously diverse country that is torn apart by years of war and dictatorship. The rebels face the monumental task of rebuilding and running the ravaged nation and bringing on track an economy punctured by global sanctions. Syria will need billions of dollars in aid.
“On the one hand, it’s amazing, remarkable that one of the worst war criminals in a very long time is out of the way,” Lister told Foreign Policy. “But also it’s opened up a can of worms that frankly nobody has a vision for at the moment.”
The future remains uncertain. As of now, there are more questions than answers.
With inputs from agencies